BTC Update Monday 3 March

G'day,

It's been a while hasn't it.  But then it's been a while since the bitcoin market has been moving in a way that I felt was susceptible to rational analysis, which is why I have stayed off the wire.

Anyway, today - in fact, right now - there are reasons for cautious optimism even if the fundamental driver for this optimism is likely to be the (very) worrying events in Ukraine and the market's expectation that the deteriorating situation - and the capital controls that have accompanied it - are likely to be bullish for bitcoin.

Nevertheless, and putting broader concerns to one side, let's review a chart which will hopefully show you what I mean.

The first thing you will note is that the short term downtrend steepened throughout February within an ever broadening channel, which I have attempted to bound with the diagonal lines.

You will also note that with the exception of the day Mt Gox's insolvency was announced, the market has observed support (on BitStamp) of around $535.

Finally, I want to draw your attention to the most recent bar which for the first time in over a month, is trying to break out to the upside of the trend channel.

Now, while this bar is yet to close, if we are still trading at or North of the upper limit of the trend channel resistance line (shown in red) when it does, a surge to $620 is very likely and if we can trade through this - perhaps having leant briefly back against it as support - the way is clear for a rally to $710, which is currently co-incident with longer term sloping resistance.

It bares saying that should the current bar get reversed - and this is a distinct possibility - the market may well view it as yet another fake-out and pile back in to the short size.  In this scenario the resulting sell-off is likely to pierce $535 conclusively and if this goes, the market will look further South still towards the recent climactic low.

So, what to do?  Well, this is one of the few scenarios in which I would be prepared to buy strength.  By this I mean that if the current bar closes nicely above channel resistance - and at or near the upper extent of the bar's range - I would to buy the close with an expectation of further upside gains.

Nothing is a certainty in this game but when the technicals and fundamentals line up like this, I always think that it's worth a punt.

Rob @ BitScan