Monday, 22 July 2013

BTC Update Tuesday 23rd July

Well, it's having a go...

Accepting the fact that this 4 hour bar is yet to close we can see that the market is at least probing the highs of its recent range.  There isn't much volume and Europe is yet to wake up but the trend over the last 16 hours has been a concerted grind North and this usually ends with a concerted thrust, as everyone finally gets the message and tries to jump in 'at market'.

Beyond this we really cannot say too much more than we said yesterday.  We look to be setting up for another bullish wave, to the point where a reversal - if it is to transpire - will likely trigger from a price above where the market is currently trading: $104 is the nearest possibility and $112 the further.

For investors in bitcoin the evolving situation still looks positive; our bias remains bullish and - as you will be getting sick of us saying - this won't change unless we hammer back down through $85.

Finally, this presents those needing to liquidate now with a quandary.  What you decide must be driven by your timescale and risk tolerance but if you can afford to hold off or bear a small loss, we would advocate setting your sell stop below $85 and crossing your fingers.  Alternatively you could select either of the upside targets we have identified as your hopping off points and finally, you could just bang out right where we are.  And there'd be no shame in that.  Despite what we are currently seeing and the conclusions we are drawing from what we are seeing, markets set themselves up to deceive; if this wasn't the case - if everyone could reliably predict the markets every move - then there wouldn't be a market at all as no-one would take the other side of your trade, right?!

Rob @ BitScan