Sunday, 14 July 2013

BTC Update Monday 15th July

We head into this trading week with a bullish bias that will not be shaken unless the market trades below $85. This chart demonstrates why:

Simply put, having burst back through a significant band of resistance, represented by the confluence of rising, descending and horizontal resistance (shown in Green), the market is forming a classic consolidation pattern above it.  This essentially means that insufficient bears have, over the weekend, seen the bull thrust as a sensible selling opportunity to drive the market straight back through support as has been the case repeatedly over the last 2 months.

As a result the market appears to be setting itself up for a further upside swing.

While it is impossible to know when the break of consolidation will occur bulls probably have around 48 hours leeway here before confidence starts to ebb and we either reverse again or, more likely, enter a broad trading range with $90 as fulcrum.

For holders of bitcoin this is, of course, good news; you needn't frown unless sellers can beat the market back down through $85 'on beans'.

Indeed, we would be happy adding to positions from $92 right down to $85.

On the other hand, holders needing to convert to fiat in the immediate term might benefit from trying to hold out for $112, which is on the cards if this market emerges from consolidation within the next 24 hrs.

In sum, this market looks pretty bullish coming into the week.  Having said this, experience has taught us that when a bias looks this obvious, the exact opposite remains a distinct possibility.  As we have seen over the last week, the bigger moves are always triggered from an extreme so don't be surprised if this looks a little worse before it looks better.  Watch $85.

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