Tuesday, 18 June 2013

BTC Update Wednesday 19 June

Yesterday, we suggested that building upside momentum could lead to a retest of $112 and advised merchants needing to liquidate BTC in the short term to place their sell stops at this level.

As this 4h chart underlines, this was good advice...

As you can see, the predicted reaction against resistance at $112 has occurred, and it sent Bitcoin all the way back down to retest support at $104.

What happens from here will depend on whether buyers possess sufficient residual firepower to drive the market back up re-test the North American high in the next 24 hours or so.  If they have, far fewer limit sell orders will be lying in wait for them at $112 resistance next time around and the market could pierce major horizontal and sloping resistance as a result.

On the other hand, a collapse of buying pressure at current prices will inevitably send the market back below the $104 swing point, setting us up for a re-test of major support in the $93-98 band.

In the meantime it is unlikely that we have seen the last of either $104 or $112, which remain the key swing points against which limit orders might sensibly be placed, depending on your circumstances and bias.