Friday, 28 June 2013

BTC Update Saturday 29 Jun

Yesterday was significant, with Bitcoin crashing back blow $100 to test the bottom of it's recent range.

Here's the chart:

What happens next?

Well, if downside momentum evaporates right here we will make a double bottom and the buying wave that follows will likely take out descending resistance, shown in red, and the top of the range at $112.  Viewed from this perspective, jumping in at Market (or anywhere North of $90) makes sense.  You may be getting an absolute bargain.

On the other hand, this move below rising support is ominous in the short term as it sets up a powerful confluence of resistance at around $104; anyone needing to convert to Fiat will be lining up their sell orders  in this zone.

In sum, we need to be clear that sellers are currently in the ascendence here.  For this bias to change, investors will be wanting to see Bitcoin reverse powerfully from these levels to retest the top of the range (at least).  In the meantime, the longer we trade below resistance, the more bullish confidence will suffer and the more likely it will prove an insurmountable barrier when tested.

Interesting times...