Sunday, 2 June 2013

BTC Update Monday 3 June

As noted last Thursday, to confirm a bullish bias, the market would need to at least re-test the recent high at $136. In the event it didn't manage to do so and the evaporation of bullish momentum resulted in a lower high. Inevitably price started to slip and yesterday bears managed to push the market decisively back through horizontal and rising support at around $125. As predicted, we fell straight back to challenge next support at $120 very quickly. 

This represents a potential shift from bullish to bearish context in the near term since while $120 is currently holding - by it's finger tips - there is no meaningful support for price South of here before $100.

As can be seen from this 4h chart, bears now have 3 potential lines of defence at $122, $125 and $130. Put a different way, bitcoin bulls have much to do to re-assert themselves with 3 points in price where any counter-attack might fail, as more participants liquidate or lighten their positions.

Should bitcoin bulls manage to drive price back above $135, this will be very bullish in the near term, but based on what we currently see, this is going to be a big ask and if we see further selling spikes anywhere between here and $135 it wouldn't surprise me for the market to be trading back down at $100-$110 in fairly short order.